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by Citizen Stewart

Poverty and student achievement, as measured by standardized test scores, are highly correlated. How do I know this? Because people who think I put too much faith in education reform constantly tell me so.

It’s not that I feel poverty has no impact on school outcomes. It just that causation and correlation mean two very different things for me. Test scores are also highly correlated with white skin, yet, I doubt anyone believes white skin causes high test scores.

Save Donald Trump. He hasn’t weighed in on the issue, but you never know with him.

Here’s my question, if test scores and income are so tightly correlated, shouldn’t we see rising and falling scores when the economy falters, then recovers?

It’s a serious question. I honestly don’t know. I feel like Denzell Washington in this clip:



I truly need someone to explain it to me like I’m a toddler.

First, look at this chart from the Economic Policy Institute. It shows steady decline in real median household income for blacks between 2000 and 2010.


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This chart from Business Insider shows a longer view. Black median household income rose between 1960 and 2012, but not by much.

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Now, look at this chart that shows steady growth in black NAEP test scores. It’s actually fairly steady growth, even through seven economic recessions.


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Two points are weird to me: 1) there were sharp gains between 1978 and 1985, a time period when black median household income was depressed. And, 2) NAEP scores were fairly flat during the 1990’s when black income rose quickly.

So what gives?

If the correlation between poverty and test scores is so impregnable, how is it that scores went up during times of economic turmoil, and fell flat during times of prosperity?

Surely this there is a simple answer.

Since I don’t know, I’m going to ask people who spend a lot of time thinking about this stuff for their easiest answers.

Stay tuned.

Citizen Stewart